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Home => Scheme cut => Can Russia to enter WTO "Bush legs"Can Russia to enter WTO "Bush legs"
The failure of talks with U.S. on the membership of Russia in the WTO round of G8 became unpleasant surprise for Russia. And one and a half months after the answer: if the U.S. will continue to persist, Russia in fact abandon "Bush legs". Reshitsya Do not complicate whether the "ultimatum" to further negotiations will not whether the increase in the price of prilavkah? Correspondents "WP" conducted its own investigation. Why chickens? "Motor Bush" is not the first time the subject of bargaining. Just remember, as Russia impeding their import, when our steel is not allowed in the United States. Although long proved that "stalk" to blame only the fact that deep-frozen, no "terrible" hormones are not, but they feed the poorest of our customer, but America will be taken to beat the "legs". Why? As experts explain, the reason - the political sensitivity of the issue to the United States. While the American economy as a whole, such sanctions - as mosquito bites, but "stalk" produce two thirds of American States, where farmers complained to the parliament and parliamentarians to raise the noise. In addition, the budget of the United States is obliged to compensate the farmers losses, as a Minister of Finance like the extra cost? As for Russia, we have exactly poultry along with the grains sector - the consolidated agricultural sector lobbies, and this lobby is always ready to support the fight against a competitor. As suggested Gref < br /> Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has circulated a letter signed by the Minister, which states that if progress in negotiations on WTO will not be achieved at the October round (according to our information, there is the personal meeting of Presidents of Russia and the U.S. ), We will terminate the preference for meat trade to America. Shortly colleague supported the Minister of Agriculture Alexei Gordeev. What are the preferences it? Russia introduced quotas for meat imports in the second quarter of 2003. The main mechanism for this - "the principle of the country (for individual States establishes a certain amount of import of meat). Negotiations on WTO then seemed to go well, the U.S. and EU won a solid volume of quotas and the other major supplier, but a minor player in the negotiations, Brazil, obideli. Gone askew: the EU has no real product and market operators had to change the quota for EU Brazilian (admittedly, the U.S. quota does not serve the subject of an exchange, where chickens nemereno). Last year, at a time of new hope for an early membership, Russia and the U.S. signed a new agreement on trade: the exchange of quotas banned for U.S. fixed share of 74 percent, with growth in volume of 40 thousand tons per year. The agreement has caused negative reactions in minselhoze, but it seemed that it was, it gives us a road to the WTO. What is the "ultimatum" As explained by the correspondent of "WG" executive director of the Association of operators of Russian market of poultry meat Anton Surikov, a freeze of last year's US-Russian agreement and a change of Government Regulation on the import quota regime. Quotas on chicken reduced by 800 thousand tons, the division of their country abolished and duty on vnekvotnoe meat will not fall. According to Mr. Surikov, technically it's easy to implement. As explained to us, other experts, export contracts are carried out with a temporary "shoulder" in two months, so that the revision of the order in November will allow suppliers to enter into new contracts is just the beginning of 2007. Not so, and contrary to international practice: are accepted, they canceled. Implications for Market Expert Opinions on the impact of "chicken ultimatum" for buyers diverge. Thus, according to Mr. Surikov, "stability in the market, will not be sharp fluctuations and the dumping will create more favorable conditions for investment in the Russian poultry" and that "guaranteed not to increase prices." Cancel dividing the country "will allow operators to easily maneuver on the world market and take the chicken, where profitable. So, now account for imported meat from Brazil outside the quotas, that is expensive. It stands general director Rosptitsesoyuza Galina Bobyleva, which offers a "level of the quota cut by 30-40 percent. Then the Russians through 2-3 years fed meat to their country. " Do not fear Ms. Bobyleva and rising prices - ours, if properly considered cheaper will confront it, 20 per cent. But the head of the Russian Mission of the U.S. Council on exports of poultry and eggs (USAPEEC) Albert Davleev holds the opposite view: any statement, much less solutions, which can not be accepted, it is instability for all . Simply put, the manufacturer does not know how many chickens sit in the incubator, a supplier - how many dirty. It is possible that Americans feel that their urezhut, lower prices, as Brazilians, on the contrary, they raise. In the latter no doubt, and such well-known experts as Elena Tyurina and Dmitry Rylko, indicating that most affected Siberians, the main buyers of cheap imports. "The end of the year promises to be difficult," - said Mr. Davleev. He said that domestic manufacturers of "mass" of frozen chicken meat automatically throw on the price of imports 10-15 percent, and so shape its price, so the rise in the cost of imports (say, because of the conduct of Brazil) immediately auknetsya and its product. central position of chairman of the beef is of the Union of Russia Musheg Mamikonyan: supports the idea of quotas, but calls for caution: "We are not supporters of categorical measures - explained he was a correspondent of" WP ". - Prices could rise. Indeed, the American Chicken legs are sold below cost, a Russian poultry can not imagine such a permit. When the American imports on imports from other countries, it is important to observe a balance so as not to create problems among the population ". Question bargaining believe those who sees the abolition of "preferences" for the benefit of APC. If so, start a Do it all for the benefit of APC, or as reception in the negotiations with the WTO? And if the latter, whether Russia will reach the goal? We interviewed experts do not build illusions: revision of quotas would have been good, but it might not happen if the United States and Russia have made "progress" in negotiations. Actually, this is explicitly stated in the "ultimatum Gref, and for us - a tactical move, what was a lot. Not without reason minselhoz called for the revision of quota policy countless times, but also "listen" it only now. "The Government chooses priorities, - said Mr. Surikov - and it probably interests of metallurgists, lobby accession to the WTO is more important than the interests of APC. For the APC would be better not to join the WTO, even 10 years. " "This was justified by our hopes on the adoption of the WTO - the second to him, Mr. Mamikonyan, remembering the introduction of country allocation. - However, the market and then felt this situation is not fair, because the normal trade relations should be formed no political motives, but the current competition among exporters. " In a dialogue with the WTO, countries often use such moves, although Russia did unique. Normally, countries are traded, is already being members of the WTO, Russia is entering so long ago that had to maneuver "on podlete." A clear example of WTO concessions - "delivery" of insurers during the July round of talks. An example of the opposite kind - the announcement of the ban sale of imported alcohol with old excise stamps after July 1, made at the talks in March this year. However, as neither strain memory, prosecutors from the "demonstration effect" remember little. The same alcohol manifesto struck on the counter to our, angry Americans and the EU, but to the WTO have not brought. As they say older participants in the negotiations, a tactic long "ubaltyvaniya partners without drastic steps did better. Press Service of the U.S. trade representative has already made it clear that stick peregnuta - an ultimatum, according to the statement, "Russia will create serious problems" with the accession. "If Russia decides not to comply with those agreements reached during the negotiations, it would create serious problems that complicate our efforts to complete negotiations on reaching a bilateral agreement on Russia's WTO Accession", - said press secretary shtatovskogo Ministry Sean Spicer. When these lines are written, minselhoz USA is also preparing a formal statement. We were unable to draft the text, but sources close to the process suggest that it will also be tough. It is symbolic that Russia's chief negotiator Maxim Medvedkov refused to answer "WP" on the issue, complicate an "ultimatum" of his own work. And our sources in Geneva, the headquarters of the WTO, recall that the WTO has repeatedly cursed the way for Russia to renounce their own arrangements (to take at least a discussion on the board of European airlines for flying over Siberia). "And this move is unlikely to be well received," - told us informed respondent in Geneva. In this regard can only recall the words of Mr. Gordeyev said in an interview with them "the WG": Minister rigidly lamented the absence of the country's trade policies are not dependent on the current situation. The market for food and chicken including - extremely difficult. Its regulation requires a thoughtful approach, while sharing "chickens on steel" or "at the WTO" is, according to have Mr. Medvedkova, said on another occasion - "gambling on Cherkizovskom market" rather than negotiating policy. But farmers in that once seized at a straw, and they can understand. Rossiyskaya Gazeta |
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